New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh appears ready to give markets fewer signals. That may give the Fed more flexibility, but it also gives every data point more power to move markets.
Elevated coupon income should continue to support senior loan returns in the second half of 2026, but tighter valuations and rising sector dispersion reinforce the importance of active credit selection.
The back half of 2026 may hinge on six themes: AI spending, uneven growth, labor supply, sticky inflation, uneasy central banks, and volatile bond markets.
As companies look to bond markets to fund AI investment, the credit impact is showing up in more selective ways, creating opportunities for active investors.
Markets are being tested on several fronts at once. But the important question is how these shocks travel—through inflation, monetary policy, funding conditions, or issuer fundamentals. That’s where resilience begins to diverge.
The first phase of the AI trade rewarded broad calls: “Buy power!” “Sell software!” The next phase will require much more discrimination across business models, capital structures, and industries.