Barring a deep, prolonged recession, we expect leveraged borrowers to successfully navigate the late cycle backdrop given relatively healthy fundamentals.
As we enter the new year, attention is shifting from inflation to the economy and the effects of tighter Federal Reserve policy.
Eyes remain firmly on the Federal Reserve, which has engineered a landscape of materially higher real and nominal rates.
The gilt crisis that brought down a UK prime minister also pummeled pension schemes and dialed up the heat on liability-driven investing. But LDI can still provide many benefits to pension plans – and US corporate plans may be particularly well positioned.
Look under the hood of sizzling headline inflation, and you’ll see it starting to cool.
Securitized credit provides diverse, structured and customizable access to U.S.-centric risk that seems best positioned to weather any economic uncertainty on the horizon.
In 3Q22, US CLO tranches exhibited mixed returns with the investment grade (IG) part of the stack faring better than the mezzanine (mezz) part.
In this environment of extreme volatility, the best way for insurers to manage risk is to purchase investments with a built-in margin of safety.
With many aspects of the US economy in decent shape, we believe spread widening in a recession is likely to be limited. Still, investors no longer need to overreach on risk.
With a track record of strong and differentiated returns, commercial mortgage loans can be an effective way to diversify institutional fixed income portfolios.
As the range of economic outcomes has widened, insurance investors need to be laser focused on the potential catalysts for tail risk.
After a stormy period of rising rates, insurance companies have a real opportunity to increase portfolio book yield or future carry.
We expect inflation to ease despite a surprisingly high CPI reading for August, allowing the Federal Reserve to temper its aggressive pace of rate increases.