LDI Quarterly Update: 2Q25

For DB pension plans, the most surprising shift in 2Q wasn’t necessarily the markets’ move from volatility to outperformance—it was a growing industry-wide shift in perspective. For the first time in years, a growing number of plan sponsors are pulling back from termination strategies. Mercer’s corporate CFO Survey data shows only 22% of organizations are considering plan termination within the next three years, down sharply from 37% in 2023. Meanwhile, half of all sponsors now say they have no intention of terminating their DB plans in the foreseeable future, up from just 28% in 2021. 

Even more striking: some sponsors are going beyond preservation and actively reopening their DB plans. IBM made headlines by reviving its previously frozen plan with a new cash balance design, and at least one other large employer has followed suit.

These moves suggest that DB plans are increasingly no longer perceived as just legacy liabilities. They’re being reimagined as strategic tools for workforce and financial management. In fact, according to the same survey, more than half of sponsors are exploring plan changes in 2025, including hybrid structures and flexible arrangements such as cash balance plans. 

This growing interest in creative plan design reflects a broader move toward adaptable pension solutions that align with the evolving needs of a modern, diverse workforce—while maintaining acceptable levels of organizational risk. 

On the subject of risk, the survey shares that 70% of organizations have adopted dynamic de-risking strategies—up nearly 10 percentage points from 2023. Additionally, nearly 44% have increased allocations to fixed income, aiming to enhance funded status stability and better align asset-liability profiles.

Discount rate and liabilities essentially unchanged while equities increased 11%. We estimate the funded status of extant pension plans in the S&P 500 increased from 99% to 103% during the quarter. We assume a 50/50 mix of growth assets and hedging assets, which is the average allocation for plans in the S&P500. Equity returns for the second quarter for the common mix of assets held by many sponsors was almost 11%, giving the funded status a boost. 

The Treasury curve bear steepened during Q2, increasing its upward slope with lower short-end rates and higher long-end rates. The 5-year UST declined by 18 bps, the 10-year fell by 2 bps, while the 30-year rose by 17 bps. This movement on the short end was primarily driven by the temporary suspension of early April’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which eased near-term growth concerns, while persistent inflation pressures and fiscal uncertainty pushed long-end yields higher. Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady but struck a cautious tone, acknowledging the risks posed by trade policy and sticky inflation. 

Corporate bond spreads made a round trip in Q2, widening sharply during April’s tariff announcements and global trade tensions, then retracing much of that move following the temporary suspension of those tariffs and stabilizing macro data. Early in the quarter, risk-off sentiment drove spreads wider as investors reacted to the inflationary implications of new tariffs and the potential for retaliatory measures. However, the 90-day pause in tariff implementation announced April 9th, combined with resilient corporate fundamentals and improving market tone, helped spreads recover. The long corporate index OAS ended the quarter 14 bps tighter at 100 bps, reflecting modest net tightening after a volatile round trip. The net result of rate and spread movements during the quarter was a 1 bp decrease in the FTSE Pension Discount Rate for short-duration plans. For a plan with a duration of 11 years, this translated to essentially no material change in liabilities, as by quarter end the net impact of Treasury yields was largely offset by credit spreads. 

Our representative equity portfolio had a total return of 11%. For this purpose, we use a mix of S&P 500 (45%), Russell 2000 (25%), MSCI EAFE (20%) and MSCI EM (10%), reflecting the breadth of equity holdings in most plans.

• The US Treasury spot rate curve is flatter than the FTSE pension discount curve as of 6/30/2025.
• For the 15-year tenor, the U.S. Treasury spot rate is lower as of 6/30/2025 vs. 12/31/2024.
• Similarly, for the 15-year tenor, the Aa-rated corporate bond spot rate is lower as of 6/30/2025 vs. 12/31/2024.

A note about risk: Examples of LDI (liability-driven investing) performance included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. Liability valuations can increase due to falling interest rates or credit spreads, among other things, as the present value of future obligations increases with falling rates and falling spreads. Liabilities can also increase due to actual demographic experience differing from expected future experience assumed by the plan’s actuary. Diversification neither assures nor guarantees better absolute performance or relative performance versus a pension plan’s liabilities. In addition, investing in alternative investment products such as derivatives can increase the risk and volatility in an investment portfolio. Because investing involves risk to principal, positive results and the achievement of an investor’s goals are not guaranteed. There are no assurances that any investment strategy will be profitable on an absolute basis or relative to the pension plan’s liabilities. Information contained herein should not be construed as comprehensive investment advice. For comprehensive investment advice, please consult a financial professional.