When the VIX Explodes, Machines Stay Composed | Voya Investment Management
Machine Intelligence

In a volatile market, Voya’s machine learning models have offered a reliable, data-driven approach to navigating the ups and downs.

When the Volatility Index (VIX) surges past 20, 30, or even 50, even the most experienced investors can feel a bit unnerved. It's these moments when a machine's cold, calculating character can be especially helpful. Voya’s machine learning models just keep processing data and making high-conviction calls without hesitation. Here's an example... 

2024: Early warning signs 

In second half of last year, our models flagged warning signs in the mega cap space. Valuations were stretched, sentiment was peaking, and market exuberance seemed disconnected from fundamentals. As many investors continued to ride the Magnificent 7, our models shifted defensively, reducing portfolio beta and favoring consumer staples and stable health care segments. 

Early 2025: Measured reintroduction of risk 

In early 2025, the models began cautiously reintroducing risk, especially after the market peaked in February. As tariff announcements on April 2 brought sharp market moves, our models pivoted more aggressively. They rotated out of defensives and into select growth names, as markets began to look rational again. 

Today: Finding balance 

Today, the models are in a balanced, neutral position, with no strong conviction on market direction. Portfolio beta is in line with the benchmark. Tracking error has declined, albeit still at active levels. And there’s renewed exposure to tech, including semiconductors. This recalibration proved favorable as markets recovered. 

The takeaway 

With oversight from our human PMs, the machine intelligence models mitigated risk during the selloff and pivoted quickly to participate in the rebound—a challenging feat even for experienced active managers. We’ll be watching their signals closely, as they tend act swiftly when inflection points arrive. 

Institutional investors: Learn more about Voya Machine Intelligence and what we call the Third Wave of Investing.

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A note about risk
The principal risks are generally those attributable to stock investing. Holdings are subject to market, issuer, and other risks, and their values may fluctuate. Market risk is the risk that securities may decline in value due to factors affecting the securities markets or particular industries. Issuer risk is the risk that the value of a security may decline for reasons specific to the issuer, such as changes in its financial condition. 

Investment model: A manager’s proprietary model may not adequately allow for existing or unforeseen market factors or the interplay between such factors, and even a model that performs in accordance with the manager’s intentions may underperform other investment strategies or result in greater losses than other strategies. The proprietary models used by a manager to evaluate securities or securities markets are based on the manager’s understanding of the interplay of market factors and do not assure successful investment. The markets, or the prices of individual securities, may be affected by factors not foreseen in developing the models. Strategies that are actively managed, in whole or in part, according to a quantitative investment model, including models using artificial intelligence to select securities, can perform differently from the market as a whole based on the investment model and the factors used in the analysis, the weight placed on each factor, and changes from the factors’ historical trends. Mistakes in the construction or implementation of the investment models (including, for example, data problems and/or software issues) may create errors or limitations that might go undetected or be discovered only after the errors or limitations have negatively impacted performance. There is no guarantee that the use of these investment models will result in effective investment decisions for the Strategy.

Artificial intelligence (AI): AI—including natural language processing, machine learning and other forms of AI—may pose inherent risks, including but not limited to: issues with data privacy, intellectual property, consumer protection, and anti-discrimination laws; ethics and transparency concerns; information security issues; the potential for unfair bias and discrimination; quality and accuracy of inputs and outputs; technical failures and potential misuse. Reliance on information produced using AI-based technology and tools should factor in these risks. When using a quantitative model, including those that utilize AI, as part of an investment strategy, please note data imprecision, software or other technology malfunctions, programming inaccuracies and similar circumstances may impair the performance of these systems, which may negatively affect performance. Furthermore, there can be no assurance that the quantitative models used in managing a strategy will perform as anticipated or enable the strategy to achieve its objective. The Voya Machine Intelligence (VMI) team employs a proprietary machine learning approach to identify and exploit persistent patterns in company data. The approach leverages (non-linear) machine learning (“ML”) models for fundamental analysis. The ML models employed do not utilize generative AI algorithms.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500 Index call and put options.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. This market insight has been prepared by Voya Investment Management for informational purposes. Nothing contained herein should be construed as (i) an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any security or (ii) a recommendation as to the advisability of investing in, purchasing or selling any security. Any opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment and are subject to change. Certain statements contained herein may represent future expectations or other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (1) general economic conditions, (2) performance of financial markets, (3) interest rate levels, (4) increasing levels of loan defaults, (5) changes in laws and regulations and (6) changes in the policies of governments and/or regulatory authorities. The opinions, views and information expressed in this commentary regarding holdings are subject to change without notice. The information provided regarding holdings is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Fund holdings are fluid and are subject to daily change based on market conditions and other factors.

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