Multi-Asset Perspectives

We believe the equity market is in a late-cycle environment, which becomes harder to navigate as recession concerns start to rise.

Potential global economic stabilization and a slowing U.S. labor market should allow risk assets to benefit from loose monetary policies.

Sentiment-driven rallies can be powerful, but we do not yet see enough supports to sustain recent equity market gains.

Before re-entering risk markets, we await signals of adequate return potential from two of three pillars of our investment process.

As we move into 2019, we expect economic and earnings growth to slow but not stall. We remain overweight U.S. large cap and emerging market equities, but think growth abroad is more likely to surprise to the upside.

Is recent equity market volatility an overdone technical correction—or something more ominous?

This month, learn how a stable economic backdrop, well-communicated monetary policy and increasing earnings affects our outlook for stocks versus bonds.

This month, learn how U.S. economic growth and the expected path of U.S. interest rates affect our outlook for stocks.

Our optimistic outlook for stocks presumes a continuation of the global expansion. Supporting the U.S. fundamental picture are a flat Phillips curve, high corporate free cash flow and lack of private sector imbalances.

The first half of 2018 has seen broad retrenchment from last year's strong returns and low volatility. But if fundamentals hold up the second half may be quite different.