Investment Outlook

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Good Data Harder to Find, but Decline in Real Yields Drives Stocks Higher

September 3, 2020

We expect a big bounce in 3Q20 global growth, but because an effective COVID-19 vaccine is unlikely until mid- to late-2021, further gains in 4Q20 and 1H21 will prove more difficult.

Combination Lock

Inflation: Sign of Recovery or Sign of Concern?

August 24, 2020

Never mind the recent uptick in inflation—we believe the Fed’s zero interest rate policy is here to stay.

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Powerful Improvement Factor is Difficult to Recognize in Real Time

July 29, 2020

As U.S. COVID-19 cases increase, so does the risk that economic recovery decelerates. We think policy makers will do what it takes to sustain the recovery, and therefore continue to prefer U.S. equities over bonds.

Will Policy Support be Enough?

July 27, 2020

As May and June numbers are proving out, policy support is the lifeline the economy needs, serving as a bridge to help consumers emerge on the other side of the pandemic intact.

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